LDP Swept Out of Power

I'm taking a break from the past today to reflect on today's historic election in Japan, in which the Democratic Party of Japan (DJP) defeated the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a rout, sweeping from power the party that had ruled Japan essentially uninterrupted since 1955.

I was in Japan in 1993, when the opposition briefly broke the LDP's hold on power and governed for 11 months. The central bureaucracy, which was strongly tied to the LDP, worked to frustrate the Hosokawa government and it collapsed in under a year, returning the LDP to power. But the LDP has never quite been the same since, ruling as weak government with the exception of the six years when Junichiro Koizumi was prime minister.

This election represents the end of cold-war politics in Japan, and a final triumph over the urban and suburban areas over the rural districts that held disproportionate political power under the LDP. The DJP is expected to spend more on social infrastructure and less on massive construction projects, as well as to strengthen Japan's relationships with other Asian countries and distance itself somewhat from the United States. It will be interesting to see if an apology for WWII is finally forthcoming, since the DJP is not in the pocket of the Bereaved Families Association, which prevented such an apology, as the LDP was.

The DJP's biggest challenge will probably be internal. The party is a collection of different constituencies, formed of defectors from the LDP and the remains of the old Japan Socialist Party. The disparate branches of the DJP are tied together by their opposition to the LDP, rather than by a common program. So, will the DJP be able to implement a program, or will it quickly become caught up in infighting? It's impossible to say at this point. But Japan has long needed a political shakeup, and now that shakeup has come in dramatic fashion. There is now a great opportunity for change. Will the bureaucrats frustrate it? Will the DJP squander its historic chance? Only time will tell.